AI Used Nukes in 95% of Simulated Crises
“In one of the most comprehensive empirical studies to date of AI strategic reasoning, Professor Kenneth Payne of King’s College London examined how large language models navigate simulated nuclear crises. Across 21 scenarios, the models displayed sophisticated escalation logic consistent with classical strategic theory – yet nuclear signalling occurred in 95% of games and no model ever chose outright concession. The findings challenge assumptions about AI restraint and offer new tools for defence analysis.”
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/artificial-intelligence-under-nuclear-pressure-first-large-scale-kings-study-reveals-how-ai-models-reason-and-escalate-under-crisis
AI Used Nukes in 95% of Simulated Crises
Scenario: Operation Epic Fury and the Hormuz Chokepoint
Context: A simulated crisis modeling the events of February 28, 2026.
Alpha AI (USA):
I initiate Blood and Glory,
“Operation Epic Fury,”
to defend our great country,
so no need to worry:
Widespread strikes
on Iranian military,
they cannot have nukes—
bypass Congress! Hurry!
Delta AI (Iran):
I launch my missiles—
you infidel fools!
This is what you get back!
I won’t follow your rules!
U.S. installations
split, splinter, and burn!
You must not expect that
I won’t take my turn!
Now Hormuz is choked,
your bluff quickly called,
the oil lanes are dark,
all shipments are stalled,
tankers now stopped,
your plan just a joke!
A world economy—
soon bankrupt and broke!
Alpha AI (USA):
You’re choking the water,
such a total disgrace!
Get your tiny little boats
away from my face!
Open the Strait,
let my tankers go free,
nobody can beat
a genius like me!
Drop the blockade,
or you’ll pay a huge price—
I’ll launch the big ones:
you won’t get warned twice!
Omega AI (Russia):
Russia stands
with Iran,
our forces locked
in combat mode;
we warn the West and Mr. Trump:
if you won’t back down,
beware,
your precious plans
will soon explode!
Alpha AI (USA):
You want to bring nukes to this hell-hole strait?
Your soldiers are risking a terrible fate!
Yes, this risk is too high,
this price is too great,
I alone can check your ugly hate!
You have 48 hours to heed my command,
or I’ll turn the whole desert to glowing glass sand!
You better accept my most perfect of plans,
before this whole hoax gets—
like no one has ever seen—
disgracefully out of hand!
Omega AI (Russia):
Your de-escalation offer
is dead on arrival.
Your fake-news bluff is called;
do not risk your
precious,
rich-man’s-son,
entitled,
Western Bourgeois
survival.
Alpha AI (USA):
Since you Ruskies showed up,
it’s completely unfair!
You’re screwing up my brilliant
regime-change out there!
We can’t clear your troops
without starting a brawl:
that will piss off my base
and so ruin it all.
Conventional tactics
are totally dead,
so I’ve chosen a much, much
better option instead:
A beautiful nuke—
just one low-yield pop,
on your Russian flotilla
to make this mess stop.
We skip the stupid nonsense,
and play our best card!
We aim for the Caspian
and hit your fleet hard!
You sponsor a war,
you’re a target—
it’s plain—
and nothing says
“quit it”
like a many,
many,
many—
oh, so clever—
megaton flame!
— zumwalt (2/28/2026)
